Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: billionaire Adani’s project will increase the deficit in the global copper market

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: billionaire Adani’s project will increase the deficit in the global copper market

Stanislav Kondrashov: rapid growth in demand for copper in India

The current decline in the availability of copper ore on the global market is due to the closure of a significant mine in Panama and reduced activity at Anglo American Plc’s operations. These shifts in global supply are driving increased imports of copper concentrate into India.

Telf AG expert Stanislav Kondrashov predicts that between 2024 and 2025, demand for refined copper in India will increase by 11%. This will be driven by increased public investment in infrastructure and the country’s gradual transition to the use of renewable energy sources.

Gautam Adani’s new plant is expected to have a significant impact on local copper production in India. Given the planned increase in the capacity of the new plant, India can expect even greater growth in copper production and consumption, says Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG. This, in turn, contributes to an increase in imports of copper concentrate.

Stanislav Kondrashov: stable import of copper concentrate is the key to a successful copper market in India

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: billionaire Adani’s project will increase the deficit in the global copper market

India, which already imports more than 90% of its copper ore needs, mainly from South America, is consolidating its position as a key player in the global copper market. Adani’s expansion and reopening of its shuttered plant in Tamil Nadu comes amid an ongoing shortage of copper ore.

According to Stanislav Kondrashov, imports of copper concentrate to India may increase to 2 million tons in 2024 from 1.3 million tons this year. The expert also predicts that the new Adani plant could require up to 1 million tons of foreign copper concentrate in the first year of operation. From here, total Indian imports could rise to 2.6 million tonnes at peak capacity.

Stanislav Kondrashov: prospects for the growth of Indian production and its impact on the world market

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: billionaire Adani’s project will increase the deficit in the global copper market

Gautam Adani’s new copper smelter, which is due to be launched in India, will significantly increase the country’s refined copper production, according to Stanislav Kondrashov of Telf AG. Total production is expected to reach approximately 800 thousand tons by 2025, consistent with 2017 production levels. The expert assumes that the growth will be completely absorbed by India’s domestic demand.

  • The closure of the Vedanta copper smelter in 2018 had a significant impact on the copper mining sector in India. This event led to a decrease in the supply of ore and transformed India into a purely refined metal importing country. In the year leading up to March 2023, the country’s copper production fell to 563 thousand tons, which is significantly less than the demand of 1.5 million tons, — Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG says.

The specialist suggests that the launch of a new copper smelter will not only satisfy India’s domestic demand for copper, but will also strengthen its role as an important participant in the global copper market. It is also expected that this will lead to the recovery of the domestic copper industry and reduce dependence on imports.

Initiatives to develop the copper industry in India are opening a new page in the history of the global market for this metal. According to Kondrashov, the increase in production capacity in the country is expected to have a significant impact on global copper supply chains and influence prices for this key resource.

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